Election Night Tie-Pace Map

Each race's count against what a 50-50 finish would look like at this point, given which counties have reported and how they voted in 2024.

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R+20D+20 Too early to read No Senate race Bold outline = called

Bars have a tie in the middle, R+30 on the left and D+30 on the right. The tick is where a 50-50 race would be right now. Shading shows how much the projection could still move.

StateMatchupCountedMargin nowvs paceProjected finishReadContext
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How this works
  • Margin now is the gap between the top two candidates in the votes counted so far.
  • The 50-50 pace is where that gap would be right now if the race were headed for an exact tie. It takes each county that has reported, starts from how it voted for president in 2024, shifts every county by the same amount until the state comes out even, and weights each county by how many votes it has counted. In Iowa it also accounts for early votes, which post first and run about 30 points more Democratic than Election Day votes (VoteHub).
  • vs pace is margin now minus the pace. If a candidate is ahead of pace, the count is running better for them than a tie would, even if they are behind right now.
  • The projected finish takes the swing from 2024 in counties that are fully counted (95% or more, so every type of vote is in) and applies it to the votes still out. Counties that are only partly counted get less weight, so a county that has only posted early votes can't throw it off.
  • The ± band starts at 20 points and shrinks as more of the expected vote comes from fully counted counties. "On track" means the projection is ahead by more than the band. Until fully counted counties make up 10% of the expected vote, a race says "Too early," because early and mail votes alone can swing things by 20 points or more.
  • Vote counts and expected turnout come from CNN's county results. The 2024 numbers are the presidential results in the same counties or towns. Everything refreshes every few minutes.
  • It's a rough model, and it doesn't call races. It assumes every part of a state shifts the same way, which misses races where cities and rural areas move differently, and it can't see ballots counted after tonight. Each state's note says what usually comes in late.
  • The race notes come from news coverage and the campaigns, with sources linked in each one.